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Tuesday, August 12, 2014

Recognizing Patterns in Wizard101 Fishing


Seeing how things relate to each other can be important in understanding the fishing system in Wizard101. But using these observations, we can do more than that - we can predict the future of some aspects of fishing. Like, for example, what we'll see in Celestia, as demonstrated by the edit above.

The Experience Curve

Everything is a pattern. The experience curve is like any - it starts out relatively small, and starts to increase dramatically as you move into higher levels. This is modeled by a simple graph of the experience required for each level as you progress. This also includes some predictions, which, as you can see, appear to be right on-point.


If you've seen my Fishing Ranks and Badges Guide (click HERE), you know that I predicated the experience for ranks nine and ten. It's not 100% accurate, of course, but how'd I even get a ballpark range? Using the curve! Here's its data in a table format. Don't get scared, I promise math doesn't hurt!


I've highlighted the three columns you need to look at. The independent is your fishing rank, the response is the required experience. The residual is essentially what's left over of the experience with each level. It's a measure of accuracy - the closer that number to zero, the better it fits the curve. Blue numbers are all confirmed in-game. The red numbers are predictions.

The leftmost column's red numbers of my predictions for the amount of experience required to get to each rank. Notice something on the very right column. All of my predictions are more accurate than the actual XP amounts in-game as far as the curve is concerned. Does that mean they're right? No, not at all. In fact, they're likely a few thousand off. However, they're about as accurate of predictions as you can get, and are even one decimal place more accurate than what's currently in-game.

Future Fishing Spells

Fishing Spells are less set in stone than experience numbers, because they're constantly subject to change based on what's available and when the next update comes out. Suppose they introduce fishing to rank 15 now with all new fish. Chances are, they'll need to give you rank three lures now to catch these new fish instead of hope you make do until you hit ten with lures that aren't right for the fish. OR suppose the fishing update comes way down the line, after they've released all kinds of seasonal fish and extras. Then they can wait until rank ten to give rank three lures. So it all depends.

As of right now, you get Rank 1 Lures at Fishing Rank 1 and Rank 2 Lures at Fishing Rank 5, so it'd make sense if you got Rank 3 Lures at Fishing Rank 10. My prediction, then would be that the next fishing update will include the following:

  • Fishing to Rank 15 with the new title Legendary Angler for those who reach it
  • New Fishing Spells, including Rank 3 Lures available at Fishing Rank 10
  • Introduction of Rank 3 fish (including regular, rare, and epic fish)
  • Additional lower-rank fish to catch
  • Fishing available in at least four more worlds (Celestia, Zafaria, Avalon, Azteca)

That is assuming the next update takes a bit and doesn't come right away, in which case we'd need rank 3 fish and associated spells to not be included, or to be available at a lower level. The Rank 15 title and the titles I predicted in my badges guide are based on gardening ranks, which fishing ranks seem to match. The only one I'm wondering about is Master Angler, which is already a badge.

Rare and Epic Fish

There are some interesting patterns with these special rarities of fish as well. There tend to be a certain number of rare and epic fish in each world, illustrated by the graph below.


This graph is color-coded the same way - blue is confirmed in-game, while red marks predictions. It's pretty clear that there's one rare fish per world - that's been the case so far in four worlds. The interesting thing about rare fish is that you can catch them anywhere in their world of origin. Epic fish are a little different. There are one of two possibilities for the pattern - either there will be an increase in epic fish by two each world, or it will cap at four per world and remain constant from there. 

If the former is the case, then Celestia and Zafaria would have 6 epic fish, which Avalon and Azteca would have eight. While that may seem like a lot, also consider the fact that 64 fish won't even get you to Rank 8 right now, and you'll likely need over twice as many to get to Rank 15. If the latter is correct, then Wizard City and Krokotopia are simply exceptions, and every other world will have four epic fish. Either is a possibility.

What about Grizzleheim? Well, one could argue that the newest Warhammerhead Shark makes the fourth Grizzleheim epic, but not only does it not follow the rules of epic fish (found in one location only within a world), but it's also seasonal. What I believe will make four is the Devil Ray. It's on the aquarium interface, so it's not likely seasonal. It would fit perfectly into the pattern. And while it's confirmed to exist, it's also confirmed not to be in-game yet. (Source: HERE)

More Patterns?

As I continue to look more closely at fishing, I'll hopefully be able to bring you more patterns that allow prediction of future updates. Until next time, let me know if you've seen anything interesting! Thanks for reading and see you in the Spiral!

5 comments:

  1. I always enjoy reading your predictions.

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  2. Imo the Warhammerhead Shark would count even if it is seasonal but its still a fish of a world. So that would make have 4 Epic fish for Grizzlehiem. (technically since its mostly a Grizzlehiem Epic Fish)

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    1. as for the Devil Ray I'm guessing thats one of the Holloween Fish but only time will tell.

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  3. The Warhammerhead Shark can also be found in Triton Ave. so that makes 3 for WC.

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    1. It's also in GH, and seasonal, so I don't figure it counts.

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